August 4, 2021

What do Ronaldo’s Portugal need to reach Euro 2020 last 16? France, Germany & Group F permutations

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Assessing the possibilities that lie ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo and Co. as well as the other teams in the ‘Group of Death’

The knockout stage of Euro 2020 is shaping up and is set to be confirmed when the last games of Group E and F are played.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the standings of Group F – the so-called Group of Death featuring France, Portugal, Germany and Hungary – will be confirmed on the final group matchday.

Is there a chance that the reigning champions could be knocked out? What do Cristiano Ronaldo and Co. need to advance?

Goal takes a look at the Group F permutations and, most importantly, who the qualified teams could face in the last 16.

What do Portugal need to reach Euro 2020 knockout stage?

Portugal will definitely qualify for the last 16 of Euro 2020 if they beat France in their final game in Group F. Such a result will see them finish on six points, meaning they will be assured of first or second, depending on how Germany’s game against Hungary goes.

A draw against France will also be enough to secure passage to the knockout round since, while they have the same points and goal difference as Les Bleus, Portugal have scored more goals overall.

It is possible for Portugal to progress even if they lose to France – as one of the best-placed third-place teams – but in order to do so they must not lose by a margin of more than two goals.

Should Portugal suffer a defeat to France by a margin of more than two goals, then their fate will depend on results in Group E.

Who could Portugal play in the Euro 2020 last 16?

If Portugal finish top of Group F they will play one of the third-placed qualifiers and, as things stand, that will be either Switzerland or Ukraine.

Group D winners England will be Portugal’s last-16 opponents if they finish second in Group F.

Qualification as one of the third-place teams could see Portugal play Netherlands or Belgium in the last 16.

In summary: Group F winners play Switzerland or Ukraine, Group F runners-up play England and a third-place qualifier will play Belgium or the Netherlands.

What about France, Germany & Hungary?

Of course there are permutations related to France, Germany and Hungary in Group F too, with all teams still retaining a chance of knockout-stage qualification.

France are assured of their place in the knockout stage regardless of the result in their last game, but their position is not yet confirmed.

A win over Portugal will see them top the group and they could top the group with a draw, depending on the outcome of Germany vs Hungary. Even if they lose to Portugal and if Germany beat Hungary, France will advance as one of the best third-place teams. 

Germany can qualify for the last 16 with a win or draw against Hungary.

It is possible for Germany to advance if they lose their last match against Hungary, but it will require France to beat Portugal and it will also depend on the margin they lose by.

Hungary could still progress, but they need to beat Germany in order to do so.

A win over Germany and a French victory against the Portuguese would see France and Hungary progress as the top two in Group F.

If Portugal draw with France and Hungary beat Germany, the Magyars would qualify as one of the third-place teams as a final tally of four points will be enough.