September 20, 2021

Permutations: How Hamilton can clinch title on Sunday

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Lewis Hamilton will have his first chance to clinch a record-equalling Drivers’ Championship on F1’s return to Istanbul this week; if Hamilton finishes ahead of Bottas in Turkey he is guaranteed the 2020 title with three races to spare

By James Galloway

Last Updated: 09/11/20 12:43pm

Lewis Hamilton will have his first chance to equal Michael Schumacher’s illustrious record of seven F1 world titles at the Turkish Grand Prix this Sunday.

A ninth win of the season at Imola opened up the possibility for Hamilton to close out the 2020 Drivers’ Championship when the sport returns to Istanbul Park after a nine-year absence.

  • Hamilton will be world champion if he finishes the race ahead of Bottas on Sunday
  • Bottas must outscore Hamilton by at least eight points to take the title fight on to the following round in Bahrain

Watch the Turkish GP live only on Sky Sports F1 this weekend as Hamilton goes for F1’s biggest record. The race is live on Sunday morning at 10.10am.

How does it stand in the championship?

Hamilton leads Bottas, his Mercedes team-mate and only remaining mathematical challenger, by 85 points with four races of the season remaining.

There are maximum of 104 points left to play for.

After Turkey, there are only 78 left up for grabs. That means if Hamilton finishes the next race 78 or more points ahead of Bottas he is world champion for the seventh time (Hamilton would win any end-of-season tie on countback of race wins).

Bottas must reduce his deficit to Hamilton to 77 points in Turkey to stay in mathematical contention into the final three rounds.

1:19
Lewis Hamilton explains why simply winning races in F1 for him isn’t enough ‘unless you do something with the platform that it provides you’

Lewis Hamilton explains why simply winning races in F1 for him isn’t enough ‘unless you do something with the platform that it provides you’

The (many) title permutations for the Turkish GP

If Bottas wins the race with the fastest lap (26 points), Hamilton cannot be champion in Turkey

If Bottas wins the race without the fastest lap (25 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is second (18 pts)

If Bottas is second with the fastest lap (19 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least fourth (12 points)

If Bottas is second without the fastest lap (18 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least fourth (12 points) or fifth with the fastest lap (11 points)

If Bottas is third with the fastest lap (16 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least fifth (10 points)

If Bottas is third without the fastest lap (15 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least sixth (8 points) with or without the fastest lap

If Bottas is fourth with the fastest lap (13 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least seventh (6 points)

If Bottas is fourth without the fastest lap (12 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least eighth with the fastest lap (5 points)

If Bottas is fifth with the fastest lap (11 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least eighth (4 points)

If Bottas is fifth without the fastest lap (10 points), Hamilton will be champion if is at least ninth with the fastest lap (3 points)

If Bottas is sixth with the fastest lap (9 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least ninth (2 points)

If Bottas is sixth without the fastest lap (8 points), Hamilton will be champion if he is at least 10th (1 point)

If Bottas is seventh or lower, Hamilton is guaranteed to be champion

Early starts: when to watch the Turkish GP

With a three-hour time difference between the UK and Turkey, it’s the earliest start times of the reshaped season this weekend for live coverage on Sky Sports F1.

Friday
7.30am: Welcome to the Weekend LIVE!
8am: Practice One LIVE!
11.45am: Practice Two build-up LIVE!
12pm: Practice Two LIVE!
2.30pm: Story So Far LIVE!

Saturday
8.45am: Practice Three build-up LIVE!
9am: Practice Three LIVE!
11am: Qualifying build-up LIVE!
12pm: Qualifying LIVE!

Sunday
8.30am: Grand Prix Sunday LIVE!
10.10am: THE TURKISH GRAND PRIX LIVE!
12pm: Chequered Flag LIVE!
1pm: The Notebook LIVE!
3pm: Turkish GP highlights